1 00:00:12,190 --> 00:00:10,370 good afternoon my name is Dwayne brown 2 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:12,200 with NASA's Office of Communications 3 00:00:17,300 --> 00:00:15,210 welcome to NASA headquarters today you 4 00:00:20,210 --> 00:00:17,310 will hear new details about the 5 00:00:24,080 --> 00:00:20,220 structure of solar storms but also hear 6 00:00:27,580 --> 00:00:24,090 how they impact here on earth today's 7 00:00:32,990 --> 00:00:27,590 briefing materials on the internet at 8 00:00:37,310 --> 00:00:33,000 WWDC gov / stereo in addition to ww na 9 00:00:39,170 --> 00:00:37,320 SI g / sun earth all one word will have 10 00:00:41,330 --> 00:00:39,180 brief presentations from our presenters 11 00:00:43,819 --> 00:00:41,340 then we will open it up with questions 12 00:00:46,729 --> 00:00:43,829 Donna here in Washington on NASA centers 13 00:00:50,350 --> 00:00:46,739 in the phone lines I'd like to introduce 14 00:00:55,069 --> 00:00:50,360 you to today's participants first up 15 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:55,079 Lika guhathakurta lead program 16 00:01:00,799 --> 00:00:57,690 scientists vanessa is living with a star 17 00:01:06,260 --> 00:01:00,809 program and also program scientist for 18 00:01:09,890 --> 00:01:06,270 stereo craig de force staff scientists 19 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:09,900 southwest research institute boulder 20 00:01:19,130 --> 00:01:15,290 colorado Dave web research physicists 21 00:01:24,649 --> 00:01:19,140 Institute for scientific research Boston 22 00:01:28,039 --> 00:01:24,659 College and Alicia winery research 23 00:01:30,740 --> 00:01:28,049 scientists National Oceanic and 24 00:01:33,289 --> 00:01:30,750 Atmospheric Administration in the 25 00:01:35,990 --> 00:01:33,299 University of Colorado also in Baltimore 26 00:01:40,670 --> 00:01:36,000 with that I'll turn it over to Lika 27 00:01:43,270 --> 00:01:40,680 thank you stereo is a mission in NASA's 28 00:01:47,149 --> 00:01:43,280 the heliophysics division and 29 00:01:50,660 --> 00:01:47,159 heliophysics is an emerging new science 30 00:01:53,030 --> 00:01:50,670 discipline the goal of this division is 31 00:01:56,330 --> 00:01:53,040 to understand the Sun as a magnetic 32 00:02:00,200 --> 00:01:56,340 variable star and its effect on earth as 33 00:02:02,929 --> 00:02:00,210 well as the entire solar system as you 34 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:02,939 might know we live in the outer 35 00:02:10,309 --> 00:02:05,850 atmosphere of this star which at times 36 00:02:12,470 --> 00:02:10,319 can be stormy and turbulent giving rise 37 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:12,480 to the phenomenon of space weather that 38 00:02:16,790 --> 00:02:13,770 we hear about so 39 00:02:20,210 --> 00:02:16,800 fill these days so the three main 40 00:02:23,420 --> 00:02:20,220 objectives of this division is to really 41 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:23,430 understand the basic plasma physics 42 00:02:30,230 --> 00:02:26,130 processes from Sun to earth and the 43 00:02:33,230 --> 00:02:30,240 solar system which is vast very complex 44 00:02:36,410 --> 00:02:33,240 very dynamic to understand the physics 45 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:36,420 of the interaction between sun's 46 00:02:42,530 --> 00:02:40,170 magnetic field and Earth's own which is 47 00:02:46,220 --> 00:02:42,540 where space weather phenomenon is felt 48 00:02:49,220 --> 00:02:46,230 and then also to develop the scientific 49 00:02:52,430 --> 00:02:49,230 understanding necessary to really create 50 00:02:55,130 --> 00:02:52,440 these are forecasting capabilities of 51 00:02:59,240 --> 00:02:55,140 this extreme dynamic conditions in space 52 00:03:02,660 --> 00:02:59,250 that is experienced by human or robotic 53 00:03:04,670 --> 00:03:02,670 Explorer wherever we choose to go this 54 00:03:07,700 --> 00:03:04,680 is accomplished in a variety of ways we 55 00:03:10,090 --> 00:03:07,710 have a research portfolio along with a 56 00:03:13,610 --> 00:03:10,100 set of flight programs that provide 57 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:13,620 unique observations from really 58 00:03:19,850 --> 00:03:16,050 strategically located vantage point 59 00:03:22,250 --> 00:03:19,860 which is very important for gaining the 60 00:03:25,430 --> 00:03:22,260 physics understanding that we are 61 00:03:28,310 --> 00:03:25,440 seeking the flight programs are three 62 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:28,320 the Explorer program which are typically 63 00:03:34,010 --> 00:03:31,290 small missions led by individual 64 00:03:36,620 --> 00:03:34,020 principal investigators focusing on you 65 00:03:39,470 --> 00:03:36,630 know subset of very small questions to 66 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:39,480 which we can find scientific answers 67 00:03:44,630 --> 00:03:41,370 then we have two strategic lines 68 00:03:47,750 --> 00:03:44,640 solar-terrestrial pro and that goes 69 00:03:50,420 --> 00:03:47,760 after really science questions for 70 00:03:52,460 --> 00:03:50,430 science say and stereo mission is 71 00:03:54,500 --> 00:03:52,470 actually part of this program and 72 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:54,510 finally we have living with a star 73 00:03:59,270 --> 00:03:56,250 program which is another strategic 74 00:04:03,440 --> 00:03:59,280 flight program line where we actually 75 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:03,450 look for missions that have really go 76 00:04:07,670 --> 00:04:05,610 after cutting edge science as well as 77 00:04:10,610 --> 00:04:07,680 look for relevance to life and society 78 00:04:13,190 --> 00:04:10,620 Solar Dynamics Observatory is an example 79 00:04:16,849 --> 00:04:13,200 in that category if I could have the 80 00:04:21,190 --> 00:04:16,859 first systems observatory slide what you 81 00:04:24,530 --> 00:04:21,200 are looking at there is the heliophysics 82 00:04:26,750 --> 00:04:24,540 system observatory we call it evolving 83 00:04:27,570 --> 00:04:26,760 heliophysics system observatory because 84 00:04:30,749 --> 00:04:27,580 we are 85 00:04:33,990 --> 00:04:30,759 continually retooling it replenishing it 86 00:04:36,809 --> 00:04:34,000 and so the white satellites there are 87 00:04:40,020 --> 00:04:36,819 our operating missions and the ones in 88 00:04:42,689 --> 00:04:40,030 yellow are really our future missions 89 00:04:45,659 --> 00:04:42,699 that we are developing right now there 90 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:45,669 are about 16 such operating missions and 91 00:04:52,350 --> 00:04:49,210 so just looking at that you realize that 92 00:04:57,540 --> 00:04:52,360 we have been studying this system for a 93 00:05:00,200 --> 00:04:57,550 while but it is a really vast distance 94 00:05:03,330 --> 00:05:00,210 and a very complicated dynamic 95 00:05:07,140 --> 00:05:03,340 environment so just a decade or two is 96 00:05:10,379 --> 00:05:07,150 not sufficient to fully understand this 97 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:10,389 system and so what we try to do is we 98 00:05:16,219 --> 00:05:13,690 try to bring in our new missions with 99 00:05:19,589 --> 00:05:16,229 new which lent to new scientific 100 00:05:21,659 --> 00:05:19,599 insights and retire some of the old ones 101 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:21,669 from which we have already gained the 102 00:05:27,409 --> 00:05:24,490 science understanding that we need and 103 00:05:31,019 --> 00:05:27,419 in this context I think stereo is 104 00:05:33,869 --> 00:05:31,029 playing a really vital role with his 105 00:05:37,230 --> 00:05:33,879 imaging capability as well as it's in 106 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:37,240 situ measurement capital what you also 107 00:05:42,149 --> 00:05:40,210 see in this picture what might appear to 108 00:05:45,629 --> 00:05:42,159 you is that there are just a large 109 00:05:47,610 --> 00:05:45,639 number of spacecraft so just to kind of 110 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:47,620 give you a perspective the distance 111 00:05:53,309 --> 00:05:50,770 between the Sun and Earth is 93 million 112 00:05:56,670 --> 00:05:53,319 miles well it's not really obvious in 113 00:05:59,879 --> 00:05:56,680 this picture but if you can imagine the 114 00:06:02,490 --> 00:05:59,889 Sun being the size of a basketball in 115 00:06:05,399 --> 00:06:02,500 comparison then the earth would be like 116 00:06:07,050 --> 00:06:05,409 a pinhead and now you take these two 117 00:06:08,999 --> 00:06:07,060 objects and you put them at the two 118 00:06:11,249 --> 00:06:09,009 extreme ends of a basketball court 119 00:06:13,619 --> 00:06:11,259 that's what you're looking at that's the 120 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:13,629 distance and if you think about it in 121 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:16,690 that terms then these few satellite 122 00:06:22,740 --> 00:06:20,650 observations are really nothing it is 123 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:22,750 like measuring the ocean currents with 124 00:06:28,230 --> 00:06:25,810 just few buoys and it's very difficult 125 00:06:29,969 --> 00:06:28,240 to get a full perspective of the ocean 126 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:29,979 current if you are trying to do that so 127 00:06:34,529 --> 00:06:32,650 you understand the enormity and the 128 00:06:37,949 --> 00:06:34,539 complexity that we are trying to 129 00:06:41,129 --> 00:06:37,959 understand ah with these satellites and 130 00:06:44,580 --> 00:06:41,139 what what stereo is doing is really 131 00:06:47,429 --> 00:06:44,590 with its our imaging instruments it's 132 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:47,439 actually giving us a perspective on the 133 00:06:53,159 --> 00:06:50,050 turbulent solar wind and solar storms 134 00:06:56,719 --> 00:06:53,169 and it is really giving us a picture 135 00:07:01,110 --> 00:06:56,729 which is a global image which replicates 136 00:07:04,559 --> 00:07:01,120 ort of the buoys in some sense if I 137 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:04,569 could have now a picture of the stereo 138 00:07:11,839 --> 00:07:08,650 perspective and what stereo mission was 139 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:11,849 launched about five years ago October of 140 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:15,490 2006 are the two spacecraft are kind of 141 00:07:20,730 --> 00:07:17,770 launched from Earth orbit and one 142 00:07:23,399 --> 00:07:20,740 spacecraft known as stereo a not a very 143 00:07:26,100 --> 00:07:23,409 imaginative name but it's kind of 144 00:07:28,860 --> 00:07:26,110 leading the earth orbit stereo-b is 145 00:07:31,350 --> 00:07:28,870 lagging behind and they are drifting at 146 00:07:34,769 --> 00:07:31,360 a rate of about 22 degrees per year and 147 00:07:36,559 --> 00:07:34,779 what these two spacecraft do is 148 00:07:39,149 --> 00:07:36,569 initially they gave us a 149 00:07:42,300 --> 00:07:39,159 three-dimensional view of the solar wind 150 00:07:46,019 --> 00:07:42,310 and solar storms and as the drift away 151 00:07:48,269 --> 00:07:46,029 now they give us unique vision of the 152 00:07:51,719 --> 00:07:48,279 storms that are coming towards us and 153 00:07:55,170 --> 00:07:51,729 the picture that you see is essentially 154 00:07:57,389 --> 00:07:55,180 a schematic cartoon of the particular 155 00:07:59,670 --> 00:07:57,399 storm that we are going to discuss in 156 00:08:03,149 --> 00:07:59,680 detail in this press conference which 157 00:08:06,510 --> 00:08:03,159 took place in December of 2008 the two 158 00:08:10,589 --> 00:08:06,520 stereo spacecraft had a angular width of 159 00:08:12,719 --> 00:08:10,599 about 45 degrees stereo two spacecraft 160 00:08:15,869 --> 00:08:12,729 achieved its opposition meaning they 161 00:08:18,389 --> 00:08:15,879 were 180 degrees apart in early februari 162 00:08:20,429 --> 00:08:18,399 of this year and they continue to drift 163 00:08:24,089 --> 00:08:20,439 they will eventually go behind the sign 164 00:08:28,019 --> 00:08:24,099 but today they are about 164 degrees are 165 00:08:31,260 --> 00:08:28,029 behind so just five years ago if you 166 00:08:34,139 --> 00:08:31,270 think about it solar wind was largely 167 00:08:37,319 --> 00:08:34,149 invisible to us we could measure it with 168 00:08:40,350 --> 00:08:37,329 our spacecraft like ace and win at Earth 169 00:08:43,290 --> 00:08:40,360 orbit and solar storms could be viewed 170 00:08:47,220 --> 00:08:43,300 with spacecraft like Soho very close to 171 00:08:50,490 --> 00:08:47,230 the Sun with stereos pipe telescopes 172 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:50,500 today we are actually witnessing the 173 00:08:54,900 --> 00:08:52,930 solar wind we can see them solar wind 174 00:08:57,810 --> 00:08:54,910 and solar storm blow 175 00:08:59,700 --> 00:08:57,820 doing all the way from Sun to earth 176 00:09:03,050 --> 00:08:59,710 which which which is pretty incredible 177 00:09:05,850 --> 00:09:03,060 when you think about it sheer 178 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:05,860 observations from stereo have improved 179 00:09:14,130 --> 00:09:10,810 our ability to predict arrival of solar 180 00:09:16,430 --> 00:09:14,140 storms at all hugely and you will hear 181 00:09:19,170 --> 00:09:16,440 about it in detail a little bit later 182 00:09:21,300 --> 00:09:19,180 but the physics knowledge that we have 183 00:09:23,490 --> 00:09:21,310 gained from such observation is pretty 184 00:09:26,430 --> 00:09:23,500 impressive too now what you have to 185 00:09:30,050 --> 00:09:26,440 remember that we are now able to provide 186 00:09:34,250 --> 00:09:30,060 constraints for our models models need 187 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:34,260 input data input like density velocity 188 00:09:40,290 --> 00:09:37,170 magnetic field strength its direction 189 00:09:42,630 --> 00:09:40,300 shape of these structures which really 190 00:09:45,030 --> 00:09:42,640 give us a sense of the magnetic topology 191 00:09:48,660 --> 00:09:45,040 that bound these structures and with 192 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:48,670 this we are actually able to do much 193 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:52,290 better modeling and that is really very 194 00:09:59,130 --> 00:09:56,890 important you know sometimes you but 195 00:10:01,260 --> 00:09:59,140 we've seen many solar storms and you 196 00:10:04,560 --> 00:10:01,270 think maybe all of them are traveling 197 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:04,570 and arrive at earth that's not the case 198 00:10:11,610 --> 00:10:08,050 a lot of stuff goes on between the Sun 199 00:10:14,450 --> 00:10:11,620 and Earth some solar storms are kind of 200 00:10:17,970 --> 00:10:14,460 deflected or eaten away by solar beam 201 00:10:22,340 --> 00:10:17,980 some storms actually speed up in their 202 00:10:25,350 --> 00:10:22,350 transit some slowdown you know some 203 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:25,360 storms have their structure kind of 204 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:28,210 distorted by the environment of the 205 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:30,250 solar wind that they are traveling 206 00:10:36,900 --> 00:10:33,730 through and so it is it's a NN stereo is 207 00:10:39,180 --> 00:10:36,910 actually observing all of these all the 208 00:10:41,820 --> 00:10:39,190 way from the beginning to the end and so 209 00:10:45,500 --> 00:10:41,830 to give a really detailed description of 210 00:10:49,500 --> 00:10:45,510 one such storm is Craig de Forest 211 00:10:51,540 --> 00:10:49,510 Gilligan so the news today is that for 212 00:10:54,690 --> 00:10:51,550 the first time we've been able to image 213 00:10:57,330 --> 00:10:54,700 a coronal mass ejection with lots of 214 00:10:58,950 --> 00:10:57,340 detail and a photometric quality all the 215 00:11:01,200 --> 00:10:58,960 way through its entire lifecycle from 216 00:11:03,330 --> 00:11:01,210 the inside of the solar corona until it 217 00:11:06,030 --> 00:11:03,340 impacted the earth three days and 93 218 00:11:08,140 --> 00:11:06,040 million miles later now this was enabled 219 00:11:11,110 --> 00:11:08,150 by new processing methods 220 00:11:12,850 --> 00:11:11,120 that were applied to archival data from 221 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:12,860 the International seki instrument 222 00:11:19,150 --> 00:11:16,850 onboard stereo so I'd like to introduce 223 00:11:22,930 --> 00:11:19,160 a movie of the science we've combined 224 00:11:25,060 --> 00:11:22,940 five separate cameras views into one 225 00:11:26,380 --> 00:11:25,070 frame and I'll just give you the the 226 00:11:28,510 --> 00:11:26,390 movie to start with so if we could roll 227 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:28,520 the science movie here on the right side 228 00:11:32,350 --> 00:11:30,410 of the frame you see the lower solar 229 00:11:34,810 --> 00:11:32,360 corona and you'll see a coronal mass 230 00:11:36,820 --> 00:11:34,820 ejection form down in the corona and be 231 00:11:39,430 --> 00:11:36,830 launched into space crossing the entire 232 00:11:42,370 --> 00:11:39,440 solar system until it becomes a 50 233 00:11:44,680 --> 00:11:42,380 million mile high wall of plasma about 234 00:11:47,110 --> 00:11:44,690 to envelop the earth now for a sense of 235 00:11:49,060 --> 00:11:47,120 scale the earth on your screen would be 236 00:11:50,260 --> 00:11:49,070 microscopic we've actually drawn a 237 00:11:52,180 --> 00:11:50,270 little icon on there because you 238 00:11:54,430 --> 00:11:52,190 wouldn't be able to see it otherwise the 239 00:11:56,950 --> 00:11:54,440 scale of these these events is simply 240 00:11:58,930 --> 00:11:56,960 immense for the first time we're able to 241 00:12:01,000 --> 00:11:58,940 actually track through these outer 242 00:12:04,210 --> 00:12:01,010 regions of the of the image here on the 243 00:12:06,100 --> 00:12:04,220 left hand side in black and white as the 244 00:12:11,350 --> 00:12:06,110 structure evolves into stores before 245 00:12:13,510 --> 00:12:11,360 impact so for 40 years or more we've 246 00:12:16,300 --> 00:12:13,520 understood that the Sun occasionally 247 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:16,310 hurls billion ton clouds of material and 248 00:12:20,560 --> 00:12:18,170 123 million miles an hour into 249 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:20,570 interplanetary space when those clouds 250 00:12:23,140 --> 00:12:22,010 impact the earth they cause space 251 00:12:26,260 --> 00:12:23,150 weather effects that affect our 252 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:26,270 technology cause Aurora's that sort of 253 00:12:32,230 --> 00:12:29,090 thing ah but until now we couldn't see 254 00:12:34,180 --> 00:12:32,240 any detail in these structures after 255 00:12:36,460 --> 00:12:34,190 about ten degrees from the Sun the 256 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:36,470 result is that everything outside of 257 00:12:40,900 --> 00:12:37,970 that has been extrapolation so we've 258 00:12:43,150 --> 00:12:40,910 been unable to connect the very detailed 259 00:12:44,770 --> 00:12:43,160 structures we see at the earth back to 260 00:12:49,030 --> 00:12:44,780 the solar structures that gave rise to 261 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:49,040 them in the first place but now we can 262 00:12:53,590 --> 00:12:51,290 identify which parts of the CM e came 263 00:12:55,930 --> 00:12:53,600 from the Sun and which parts were swept 264 00:12:58,120 --> 00:12:55,940 up from the solar wind in its path we 265 00:13:00,160 --> 00:12:58,130 can see how the CM e is modified as it 266 00:13:04,090 --> 00:13:00,170 propagates and grows across the solar 267 00:13:06,100 --> 00:13:04,100 system and we can get a first look it 268 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:06,110 held a magnetic structure that drives 269 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:09,290 the CM e changes and evolves as it 270 00:13:13,900 --> 00:13:10,970 pushes the bright material in front of 271 00:13:16,740 --> 00:13:13,910 it sweeping up solar wind to impact the 272 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:16,750 planets our spacecraft at sample it up 273 00:13:21,970 --> 00:13:19,250 so to track cmi's we've been mentioning 274 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:21,980 there are five cameras we have 275 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:23,450 combined and they have vastly different 276 00:13:27,070 --> 00:13:25,490 scales so I'd like to show you what we 277 00:13:29,170 --> 00:13:27,080 did to prepare these images so you could 278 00:13:31,150 --> 00:13:29,180 see them we if we could roll the zoom 279 00:13:33,670 --> 00:13:31,160 movie please we begin with an 280 00:13:36,370 --> 00:13:33,680 ultraviolet telescope image of the Sun 281 00:13:38,290 --> 00:13:36,380 we zoom out until we can see Venus in 282 00:13:40,660 --> 00:13:38,300 the earth more than 45 degrees away from 283 00:13:43,150 --> 00:13:40,670 the Sun however we can't see the corona 284 00:13:45,790 --> 00:13:43,160 so we've distorted the coordinate system 285 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:45,800 into radial coordinates which allows us 286 00:13:51,070 --> 00:13:48,130 to see the entire system in one screen 287 00:13:52,570 --> 00:13:51,080 the the scale changes drastically from 288 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:52,580 the right to the left on the right hand 289 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:54,410 side we have the Sun on the left hand 290 00:14:00,490 --> 00:13:57,170 side we're looking at whole planets and 291 00:14:02,890 --> 00:14:00,500 the distances between them now the outer 292 00:14:04,990 --> 00:14:02,900 cameras the outer four cameras in that 293 00:14:06,670 --> 00:14:05,000 field of view the sepia tone and the 294 00:14:08,650 --> 00:14:06,680 black and white measure ordinary 295 00:14:10,780 --> 00:14:08,660 sunlight has been scattered off of free 296 00:14:17,110 --> 00:14:10,790 electrons in the plasma clouds in the 297 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:17,120 solar system close to the Sun that that 298 00:14:20,590 --> 00:14:18,770 light is easy to measure it's relatively 299 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:20,600 bright compared to the stars but by the 300 00:14:25,030 --> 00:14:22,610 time the cloud reaches Venus it's 10 301 00:14:27,550 --> 00:14:25,040 billion times fainter than the surface 302 00:14:29,050 --> 00:14:27,560 of the full moon it's about a thousand 303 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:29,060 times fainter than the Galaxy or the 304 00:14:32,700 --> 00:14:30,770 star field in deep space behind the 305 00:14:35,860 --> 00:14:32,710 images so it was a tremendous 306 00:14:37,660 --> 00:14:35,870 achievement to separate the two signals 307 00:14:39,820 --> 00:14:37,670 it was very difficult to separate the 308 00:14:44,710 --> 00:14:39,830 the signal from the clouds from the star 309 00:14:46,660 --> 00:14:44,720 field that's super imposed upon it it's 310 00:14:48,850 --> 00:14:46,670 a testament to the quality of the 311 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:48,860 instruments from NRL and the rutherford 312 00:14:52,660 --> 00:14:50,930 labs that we're able to drill this far 313 00:14:55,780 --> 00:14:52,670 into the data and actually find 314 00:14:58,330 --> 00:14:55,790 something there at the bottom so moving 315 00:15:00,340 --> 00:14:58,340 back to the science let's review the 316 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:00,350 data that I showed you at the beginning 317 00:15:05,140 --> 00:15:02,210 and slower motion now pay close 318 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:05,150 attention not just to the bright front 319 00:15:08,980 --> 00:15:07,130 as it sweeps across but to the Dark Void 320 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:08,990 behind it and I'll narrate as we run the 321 00:15:14,620 --> 00:15:12,530 gauge movie here so again we'll see the 322 00:15:17,140 --> 00:15:14,630 event form in the lower Corona it's 323 00:15:18,910 --> 00:15:17,150 visible in the ultraviolet and we'll see 324 00:15:20,950 --> 00:15:18,920 it propagate through the brown toned 325 00:15:23,260 --> 00:15:20,960 lower Corona and out into the 326 00:15:25,510 --> 00:15:23,270 heliosphere growing and distorting as it 327 00:15:27,670 --> 00:15:25,520 moves you can see the the dark region 328 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:27,680 behind the front is full of magnetic 329 00:15:31,990 --> 00:15:29,090 field and that's what's driving the 330 00:15:33,430 --> 00:15:32,000 event as it picks up material from the 331 00:15:35,150 --> 00:15:33,440 surrounding solar wind and gains 332 00:15:37,639 --> 00:15:35,160 brightness in front 333 00:15:39,889 --> 00:15:37,649 magnetic field the magnetic flux rope 334 00:15:41,420 --> 00:15:39,899 that's doing the pushing distorts when 335 00:15:43,610 --> 00:15:41,430 the whole event hits the earth the wind 336 00:15:45,710 --> 00:15:43,620 gauge pegs at 20 atoms per cubic 337 00:15:49,009 --> 00:15:45,720 centimeter and then returns back to 338 00:15:51,170 --> 00:15:49,019 normal levels indicating that in fact we 339 00:15:52,939 --> 00:15:51,180 are measuring the appropriate thing that 340 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:52,949 gauge is driven by in-situ measurements 341 00:15:57,650 --> 00:15:55,410 from NASA's wind spacecraft that was 342 00:16:04,369 --> 00:15:57,660 actually at the earth and detecting the 343 00:16:06,619 --> 00:16:04,379 this event as it went by so to sum up we 344 00:16:09,530 --> 00:16:06,629 have the for the first time we've 345 00:16:12,139 --> 00:16:09,540 tracked a complete see me lifecycle from 346 00:16:14,629 --> 00:16:12,149 the interior of the corona out to the to 347 00:16:17,990 --> 00:16:14,639 the earth this was achieved by 348 00:16:21,350 --> 00:16:18,000 reprocessing existing data from really 349 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:21,360 stunningly high quality archives from 350 00:16:28,069 --> 00:16:25,170 stereo and this should give us new 351 00:16:30,559 --> 00:16:28,079 insights into how solar storms evolve 352 00:16:32,749 --> 00:16:30,569 and connect the events that we can 353 00:16:35,389 --> 00:16:32,759 measure the earth back to their solar 354 00:16:38,059 --> 00:16:35,399 origins with that for more context I'll 355 00:16:41,660 --> 00:16:38,069 hand you over to Dave web okay thank you 356 00:16:43,939 --> 00:16:41,670 craig these movies are very important to 357 00:16:46,970 --> 00:16:43,949 solar wind studies especially those 358 00:16:48,949 --> 00:16:46,980 involve the evolution in interaction of 359 00:16:51,530 --> 00:16:48,959 this material in the inner heliosphere 360 00:16:54,319 --> 00:16:51,540 the other spheric imaging itself bridges 361 00:16:56,780 --> 00:16:54,329 a gap between observations near the Sun 362 00:16:58,639 --> 00:16:56,790 and those much further out at the 363 00:17:01,850 --> 00:16:58,649 distance of the earth or beyond as we've 364 00:17:04,010 --> 00:17:01,860 seen here now the solar wind is the hot 365 00:17:07,399 --> 00:17:04,020 plasma which flows out from the solar 366 00:17:11,149 --> 00:17:07,409 corona of the Sun and is guided by 367 00:17:13,429 --> 00:17:11,159 magnetic field lines that spiral out 368 00:17:17,270 --> 00:17:13,439 from the Sun in a garden hose pattern 369 00:17:21,049 --> 00:17:17,280 because of the rotation of the Sun now 370 00:17:25,340 --> 00:17:21,059 if we could show the movie this is a 3d 371 00:17:27,590 --> 00:17:25,350 simulation model of the solar wind and a 372 00:17:29,570 --> 00:17:27,600 CM e moving out through it that was 373 00:17:33,950 --> 00:17:29,580 taken during the first 10 days of this 374 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:33,960 month august this view on the left shows 375 00:17:38,299 --> 00:17:35,730 the circular view shows the ecliptic 376 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:38,309 plane which is the plane that the 377 00:17:44,389 --> 00:17:40,650 planets move in around the Sun so it's 378 00:17:46,700 --> 00:17:44,399 looking down on that plane you can see 379 00:17:48,820 --> 00:17:46,710 the curve the dashed lines are the are 380 00:17:51,759 --> 00:17:48,830 these magnetic field lines that 381 00:17:54,039 --> 00:17:51,769 rotating around with the Sun and the 382 00:17:57,610 --> 00:17:54,049 colors are the density pattern in this 383 00:18:00,700 --> 00:17:57,620 model the brighter colors are denser 384 00:18:03,120 --> 00:18:00,710 structures and the other view on the 385 00:18:07,180 --> 00:18:03,130 right is a north-south cut through the 386 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:07,190 plane Earth Sun earth plane showing you 387 00:18:10,509 --> 00:18:08,690 kind of the vertical component and this 388 00:18:14,110 --> 00:18:10,519 is a similar to the views that we're 389 00:18:18,130 --> 00:18:14,120 seeing from the H I images that Craig 390 00:18:20,169 --> 00:18:18,140 just showed now the plasma can be 391 00:18:22,299 --> 00:18:20,179 compressed along the original field 392 00:18:25,060 --> 00:18:22,309 lines so that will give you a long 393 00:18:27,639 --> 00:18:25,070 curvilinear density structure which co 394 00:18:29,500 --> 00:18:27,649 rotates with a son now when the CM e 395 00:18:33,220 --> 00:18:29,510 comes out you can see that it distorts 396 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:33,230 those field lines considerably and it 397 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:35,570 the seamy itself drags its own plasma 398 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:37,250 and magnetic fields out in the 399 00:18:41,830 --> 00:18:40,250 heliosphere along with it so these 400 00:18:44,710 --> 00:18:41,840 studies of the solar wind and 401 00:18:47,289 --> 00:18:44,720 co-rotating structures as well as the 402 00:18:49,990 --> 00:18:47,299 CMEs and the interactions the cme's make 403 00:18:51,430 --> 00:18:50,000 with these structures all will benefit 404 00:18:54,009 --> 00:18:51,440 from this kind of imaging that we're 405 00:18:56,169 --> 00:18:54,019 seeing today now we have been able to 406 00:18:59,470 --> 00:18:56,179 image the inner heliosphere before in 407 00:19:03,789 --> 00:18:59,480 the 70s and 80s 1970's and 80's we had 408 00:19:05,980 --> 00:19:03,799 the helios solar probes which road and 409 00:19:09,220 --> 00:19:05,990 were in orbit around the sun but they 410 00:19:10,870 --> 00:19:09,230 had a resolution that was much poor in 411 00:19:13,419 --> 00:19:10,880 time and space than what we're seeing 412 00:19:16,889 --> 00:19:13,429 today there wasn't another instrument 413 00:19:19,149 --> 00:19:16,899 like this until 2003 when the Air Force 414 00:19:21,940 --> 00:19:19,159 build and launched the solar mass 415 00:19:24,370 --> 00:19:21,950 ejection imager into Earth orbit and of 416 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:24,380 course then the stereo a chives were 417 00:19:29,019 --> 00:19:26,690 seeing now were launched in late two 418 00:19:32,460 --> 00:19:29,029 thousand six data was taken in early in 419 00:19:35,110 --> 00:19:32,470 2007 so it was almost four years later 420 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:35,120 Smee was very successful but it can't 421 00:19:40,149 --> 00:19:37,490 view within 20 to 30 degrees of the Sun 422 00:19:42,220 --> 00:19:40,159 it has noise because it's in Earth orbit 423 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:42,230 from particles in Aurora and Earth orbit 424 00:19:48,310 --> 00:19:44,210 and it's also nearing the end of its 425 00:19:49,870 --> 00:19:48,320 life time aside from us me and the H I 426 00:19:51,549 --> 00:19:49,880 instruments are no other telescopes 427 00:19:54,399 --> 00:19:51,559 right now that can view the inner 428 00:19:57,279 --> 00:19:54,409 heliosphere like we're seeing today so 429 00:19:59,529 --> 00:19:57,289 these observations are now achieving a 430 00:20:02,710 --> 00:19:59,539 goal that scientists have had or work 431 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:02,720 towards for about four decades now 432 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:05,090 this goal is to observe and understand 433 00:20:09,659 --> 00:20:07,090 the basic structure of the solar wind 434 00:20:13,690 --> 00:20:09,669 the observations allow us to separate 435 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:13,700 cme's from co and co rotating flows and 436 00:20:20,020 --> 00:20:17,090 also to better visualize and understand 437 00:20:22,570 --> 00:20:20,030 the different parts of a CME for 438 00:20:24,820 --> 00:20:22,580 instance the sheath region which is 439 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:24,830 plowed ahead of the CMEs moving out in 440 00:20:29,350 --> 00:20:27,770 through the heliosphere has the density 441 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:29,360 which is likely related to the strength 442 00:20:33,430 --> 00:20:31,850 of the CME falling behind it this has 443 00:20:36,220 --> 00:20:33,440 space weather implications that will 444 00:20:39,730 --> 00:20:36,230 hear about in a minute finally these 445 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:39,740 images will permit global views of the 446 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:43,250 solar wind and CMEs and so forth when 447 00:20:48,750 --> 00:20:46,010 this data is put into various kinds of 448 00:20:51,310 --> 00:20:48,760 models such as the one I just showed you 449 00:20:53,010 --> 00:20:51,320 now we'll turn it over to Alicia who 450 00:20:57,070 --> 00:20:53,020 will discuss the space weather aspects 451 00:20:58,750 --> 00:20:57,080 yeah so I'm a researcher at the NOAA 452 00:21:00,909 --> 00:20:58,760 Space Weather Prediction Center or ass 453 00:21:02,919 --> 00:21:00,919 whip see we call it swip see is 454 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:02,929 responsible for operational space 455 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:04,850 weather forecasting and so so we 456 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:06,770 complement the basic research that's 457 00:21:11,860 --> 00:21:09,530 done at NASA they help us understand 458 00:21:13,630 --> 00:21:11,870 these events and then and then and Noah 459 00:21:15,549 --> 00:21:13,640 we try to forecast when one of these 460 00:21:17,710 --> 00:21:15,559 events will happen and the reason we 461 00:21:19,620 --> 00:21:17,720 care is because when one of these CMEs 462 00:21:22,210 --> 00:21:19,630 one of these coronal mass ejections 463 00:21:24,730 --> 00:21:22,220 passed the earth they can cause problems 464 00:21:28,110 --> 00:21:24,740 with satellites we've had a couple cases 465 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:28,120 where power grids have been disrupted 466 00:21:34,029 --> 00:21:32,210 GPS signals can be made inaccurate when 467 00:21:35,860 --> 00:21:34,039 these storms are passing so it's good to 468 00:21:37,870 --> 00:21:35,870 know in advance some so we can be able 469 00:21:39,789 --> 00:21:37,880 to warn people who rely on these 470 00:21:42,279 --> 00:21:39,799 technologies that there may be problems 471 00:21:43,870 --> 00:21:42,289 the cme's also caused the Aurora so you 472 00:21:47,049 --> 00:21:43,880 know they're not all bad we have some 473 00:21:49,360 --> 00:21:47,059 good benefits from that NASA helps us 474 00:21:51,220 --> 00:21:49,370 with our predictions by providing by 475 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:51,230 both the basic research to help us 476 00:21:55,630 --> 00:21:53,210 understand these events and by providing 477 00:21:58,510 --> 00:21:55,640 what we call beacon data which is lower 478 00:22:01,060 --> 00:21:58,520 resolution data that can be beamed to 479 00:22:03,250 --> 00:22:01,070 sweep see forecasters instantly so that 480 00:22:07,779 --> 00:22:03,260 they can make their forecast with the 481 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:07,789 latest observations available now before 482 00:22:12,779 --> 00:22:10,250 stereo was launched we had the Soho 483 00:22:15,610 --> 00:22:12,789 Alaska instrument and that that's how we 484 00:22:16,060 --> 00:22:15,620 observed our cme's and so if we rolled 485 00:22:18,100 --> 00:22:16,070 this 486 00:22:21,220 --> 00:22:18,110 movie we have here we can see some CMI's 487 00:22:23,500 --> 00:22:21,230 it with Alaska this was a very active 488 00:22:25,300 --> 00:22:23,510 time so you see a lot of cmi's these 489 00:22:27,490 --> 00:22:25,310 bubbles of plasma coming out in all 490 00:22:31,270 --> 00:22:27,500 different directions now the forecasters 491 00:22:33,790 --> 00:22:31,280 use this to we can measure the speed of 492 00:22:35,860 --> 00:22:33,800 these CMEs but there are a couple 493 00:22:36,910 --> 00:22:35,870 problems one of them is that the cme's 494 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:36,920 we care about are the ones that are 495 00:22:40,810 --> 00:22:38,810 coming towards us and so because of the 496 00:22:42,730 --> 00:22:40,820 angle it's a little more difficult to 497 00:22:44,350 --> 00:22:42,740 measure the velocity and you also get 498 00:22:47,650 --> 00:22:44,360 these proton events like you can see 499 00:22:49,630 --> 00:22:47,660 here um the other problem is that soho 500 00:22:51,130 --> 00:22:49,640 image is very close to the Sun and so 501 00:22:54,070 --> 00:22:51,140 you're only seeing the early stages of 502 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:54,080 these CMEs as they're coming out so you 503 00:22:58,060 --> 00:22:55,730 can measure the velocity but the Sammy 504 00:23:00,490 --> 00:22:58,070 maze speed up or slow down as it heads 505 00:23:02,740 --> 00:23:00,500 out towards the Earth we have models 506 00:23:04,660 --> 00:23:02,750 that try to account for this but there's 507 00:23:07,450 --> 00:23:04,670 still a bit inaccurate we can get a 508 00:23:08,890 --> 00:23:07,460 window of about 12 to 14 hours of when 509 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:08,900 we think the CMU will get to the earth 510 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:10,490 and of course you know we'd like to do 511 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:13,570 better than that with the stereo H I 512 00:23:19,150 --> 00:23:16,970 instruments with stereo what stereos 513 00:23:21,010 --> 00:23:19,160 launched he have a we have a couple of 514 00:23:22,420 --> 00:23:21,020 benefits and one of those is the stereos 515 00:23:24,700 --> 00:23:22,430 moving away from the earth so you get a 516 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:24,710 side view of the CM e so you can measure 517 00:23:28,870 --> 00:23:27,170 the speed a lot more accurately also 518 00:23:31,090 --> 00:23:28,880 with the H I instruments you're able to 519 00:23:32,770 --> 00:23:31,100 image the CM e although as it goes out 520 00:23:35,830 --> 00:23:32,780 from the Sun much further out towards 521 00:23:38,260 --> 00:23:35,840 the Earth and so just using these images 522 00:23:40,330 --> 00:23:38,270 of these images as they were were able 523 00:23:42,580 --> 00:23:40,340 to improve our predictions to about an 524 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:42,590 eight-hour window at the earth and we 525 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:44,810 think that with Craig's technique we can 526 00:23:48,070 --> 00:23:46,250 do even better than that because now 527 00:23:49,810 --> 00:23:48,080 we're able to really see the CM e all 528 00:23:53,470 --> 00:23:49,820 the way out to the earth in detail and 529 00:23:56,380 --> 00:23:53,480 see a lot of the substructures yeah this 530 00:23:58,450 --> 00:23:56,390 is a it's a big advance in and just to 531 00:24:00,370 --> 00:23:58,460 explain that it's like trying to 532 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:00,380 understand how is hurricanes moving 533 00:24:03,970 --> 00:24:01,970 across the ocean by just having a couple 534 00:24:06,370 --> 00:24:03,980 buoys who are that are measuring wind 535 00:24:09,550 --> 00:24:06,380 speed versus now you know these these 536 00:24:11,380 --> 00:24:09,560 are movies that we can see on the news 537 00:24:13,360 --> 00:24:11,390 of the hurricane actually moving across 538 00:24:14,740 --> 00:24:13,370 the ocean so so that's what it is to us 539 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:14,750 and now we're actually seeing the sea 540 00:24:19,750 --> 00:24:17,210 enemy moving across the sky and it's 541 00:24:23,500 --> 00:24:19,760 it's really it's amazing to see and it 542 00:24:25,060 --> 00:24:23,510 really helps our predictions so timing 543 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:25,070 is very important knowing when the event 544 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:26,330 will get to the earth but the other 545 00:24:29,830 --> 00:24:28,610 thing is whether the CMU will actually 546 00:24:30,789 --> 00:24:29,840 cause problems with the earth 547 00:24:33,220 --> 00:24:30,799 and that has to do with the magnetic 548 00:24:35,110 --> 00:24:33,230 field so the earth has a magnetic field 549 00:24:36,850 --> 00:24:35,120 that's called the magnetosphere and it 550 00:24:39,250 --> 00:24:36,860 has a direction associated with it and 551 00:24:40,990 --> 00:24:39,260 these CMEs have directions to and the 552 00:24:43,930 --> 00:24:41,000 way to understand that is if you've ever 553 00:24:45,460 --> 00:24:43,940 played with a magnet a couple magnets 554 00:24:47,019 --> 00:24:45,470 you know if you turn them one way 555 00:24:49,210 --> 00:24:47,029 they'll repel each other and if you turn 556 00:24:52,210 --> 00:24:49,220 them the other they'll attract so if a 557 00:24:54,549 --> 00:24:52,220 CM e has what we call a northward field 558 00:24:57,220 --> 00:24:54,559 it's more likely well let's roll this 559 00:24:59,289 --> 00:24:57,230 next video actually sova see enemy has a 560 00:25:02,260 --> 00:24:59,299 northward field it's more likely to 561 00:25:04,539 --> 00:25:02,270 bounce off the Earth's magnetosphere and 562 00:25:06,580 --> 00:25:04,549 here we have a CMEs it's leaving the Sun 563 00:25:09,850 --> 00:25:06,590 and this one's gonna have a southward 564 00:25:13,409 --> 00:25:09,860 field so we can see what happens when 565 00:25:15,820 --> 00:25:13,419 when that sort of Sammy hits the earth 566 00:25:17,710 --> 00:25:15,830 here we're going to see these blue lines 567 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:17,720 of the magnetic field of the earth and 568 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:19,850 as the sea enemy gets the earth you see 569 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:22,250 it's actually pulling apart the the 570 00:25:28,690 --> 00:25:25,970 field and it's causes a series a chain 571 00:25:33,220 --> 00:25:28,700 of events which eventually lead to the 572 00:25:35,500 --> 00:25:33,230 Aurora and so obviously we want to be 573 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:35,510 able to predict what the magnetic field 574 00:25:39,669 --> 00:25:37,490 of these cme's are and up until now we 575 00:25:41,740 --> 00:25:39,679 haven't been able to do that but we have 576 00:25:45,190 --> 00:25:41,750 some indications that using craigs 577 00:25:48,159 --> 00:25:45,200 techniques kirk regza results we were 578 00:25:49,690 --> 00:25:48,169 able to link the structures of the CM e 579 00:25:52,570 --> 00:25:49,700 with the magnetic field that we measure 580 00:25:53,769 --> 00:25:52,580 at the earth and we think that if we 581 00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:53,779 combine that with some additional 582 00:25:57,850 --> 00:25:55,970 observations then we can start to make 583 00:25:59,860 --> 00:25:57,860 some predictions of what the sami 584 00:26:01,299 --> 00:25:59,870 magnetic field will be now this is 585 00:26:03,190 --> 00:26:01,309 pretty preliminary we need to do more 586 00:26:06,159 --> 00:26:03,200 study to be sure but this would be 587 00:26:09,039 --> 00:26:06,169 potentially a pretty groundbreaking so 588 00:26:11,019 --> 00:26:09,049 um to sum up this is a great result 589 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:11,029 where it's very exciting I mean has 590 00:26:14,919 --> 00:26:12,770 important impacts for space weather 591 00:26:17,830 --> 00:26:14,929 research and so now let me turn this 592 00:26:20,889 --> 00:26:17,840 back to the lega thanks Alicia so you 593 00:26:23,769 --> 00:26:20,899 can see as we approach the peak of this 594 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:23,779 next solar cycle 24 maybe somewhere in 595 00:26:31,060 --> 00:26:26,770 2013 we now have the necessary tools 596 00:26:33,789 --> 00:26:31,070 data and models to improve the physics 597 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:33,799 understanding of space weather which is 598 00:26:40,139 --> 00:26:37,250 what we are after however missions like 599 00:26:42,490 --> 00:26:40,149 stereo are really signed satellites 600 00:26:43,810 --> 00:26:42,500 which will not always be there to 601 00:26:45,910 --> 00:26:43,820 provide us with 602 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:45,920 critical observations in the Sun or 603 00:26:51,030 --> 00:26:48,970 system that is why we invest in physics 604 00:26:54,700 --> 00:26:51,040 understanding and modeling of this 605 00:26:56,950 --> 00:26:54,710 phenomenon and heliophysics system 606 00:26:59,650 --> 00:26:56,960 observatory kind of aid in that process 607 00:27:03,580 --> 00:26:59,660 for example we are now as you heard 608 00:27:06,490 --> 00:27:03,590 earlier able to verify models with 609 00:27:09,100 --> 00:27:06,500 ground truth verification at Earth from 610 00:27:14,230 --> 00:27:09,110 our measurements from our satellites 611 00:27:16,270 --> 00:27:14,240 light is n we indent in this plot that 612 00:27:19,360 --> 00:27:16,280 we have up there that is kind of the 613 00:27:22,150 --> 00:27:19,370 same plot that I showed earlier except 614 00:27:24,820 --> 00:27:22,160 now we have put all our operating 615 00:27:29,710 --> 00:27:24,830 missions and future missions on a solar 616 00:27:31,810 --> 00:27:29,720 cycle our time frame and so operating 617 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:31,820 machines are 16 operating missions 618 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:34,610 already going on what you can see is 619 00:27:39,130 --> 00:27:36,530 that there are some future missions 620 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:39,140 that's coming up that will continue to 621 00:27:45,940 --> 00:27:42,650 really are retool our heliophysics 622 00:27:48,130 --> 00:27:45,950 systems observatory next year we will be 623 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:48,140 launching radiation belt storm probes 624 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:51,290 and that's two spacecraft that will be 625 00:27:56,290 --> 00:27:53,810 placed in Earth's radiation belt this is 626 00:27:58,840 --> 00:27:56,300 the Geo space environment which is where 627 00:28:01,930 --> 00:27:58,850 we actually feel the impact of solar 628 00:28:03,910 --> 00:28:01,940 storms and its most important to us and 629 00:28:06,190 --> 00:28:03,920 we will be honest trying to understand 630 00:28:10,360 --> 00:28:06,200 the consequence of a solar storm and 631 00:28:14,290 --> 00:28:10,370 then in distant future in 2018 NASA 632 00:28:16,450 --> 00:28:14,300 plans really a daring mission to the Sun 633 00:28:19,030 --> 00:28:16,460 itself and it is going to a mission 634 00:28:20,950 --> 00:28:19,040 called solar probe plus that is going to 635 00:28:25,270 --> 00:28:20,960 go to the outer atmosphere of the Sun 636 00:28:27,820 --> 00:28:25,280 the corona to really measure the 637 00:28:30,910 --> 00:28:27,830 particles and the plasma much like we do 638 00:28:33,940 --> 00:28:30,920 with ace and wind at Earth to provide 639 00:28:35,950 --> 00:28:33,950 their ground truth a verification for 640 00:28:39,340 --> 00:28:35,960 our models you know the beginning and 641 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:39,350 the end and this is the environment in 642 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:42,530 which solar wind is created and solar 643 00:28:48,580 --> 00:28:46,130 storms or propagate so this is this is 644 00:28:50,290 --> 00:28:48,590 an exciting period in heliophysics with 645 00:28:52,810 --> 00:28:50,300 that I'll pass it on to you Duane well 646 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:52,820 thank you lika and to our panel so we 647 00:28:55,570 --> 00:28:53,930 are now going to open it up for 648 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:55,580 questions and we're gonna actually go to 649 00:28:57,430 --> 00:28:57,050 the phone lines first and we're gonna 650 00:29:00,730 --> 00:28:57,440 head out 651 00:29:02,049 --> 00:29:00,740 to the west coast and first up is David 652 00:29:08,619 --> 00:29:02,059 Pearlman from the San Francisco 653 00:29:13,539 --> 00:29:08,629 Chronicle David yeah thanks very much 654 00:29:17,289 --> 00:29:13,549 and I have one two part question do sea 655 00:29:20,499 --> 00:29:17,299 mas always originate within active 656 00:29:24,279 --> 00:29:20,509 sunspot regions and then the second part 657 00:29:27,700 --> 00:29:24,289 of that question is are any of you 658 00:29:30,639 --> 00:29:27,710 familiar with a report that's coming out 659 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:30,649 in science on Friday about the ability 660 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:35,090 of a Stanford group to predict the onset 661 00:29:43,869 --> 00:29:40,730 of sunspots from hit from the soho 662 00:29:47,980 --> 00:29:43,879 satellite that has been looking at the 663 00:29:51,310 --> 00:29:47,990 interior of the Sun to actually predict 664 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:51,320 the emergence of sunspots and with 665 00:29:55,450 --> 00:29:53,330 somebody whoever answers this would you 666 00:29:57,450 --> 00:29:55,460 please identify yourself because I don't 667 00:29:59,740 --> 00:29:57,460 have a I'm not in the studio audience 668 00:30:01,840 --> 00:29:59,750 thanks David Craig did you want to take 669 00:30:05,590 --> 00:30:01,850 the first question was are gonna be safe 670 00:30:08,919 --> 00:30:05,600 Oh David will take that Davis here I as 671 00:30:12,100 --> 00:30:08,929 far as the what cme's associated with 672 00:30:13,810 --> 00:30:12,110 her come from back of the Sun many of 673 00:30:15,850 --> 00:30:13,820 them especially the most energetic are 674 00:30:19,029 --> 00:30:15,860 associated with active regions and and 675 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:19,039 flaring and active regions but many are 676 00:30:24,039 --> 00:30:22,610 also associated with prominent eruptions 677 00:30:27,940 --> 00:30:24,049 or film interruptions which can exist 678 00:30:30,399 --> 00:30:27,950 these are clouds of cool gas that exists 679 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:30,409 in the solar atmosphere we don't quite 680 00:30:34,090 --> 00:30:31,850 know why they're suspended by the 681 00:30:37,149 --> 00:30:34,100 magnetic field and for some reason they 682 00:30:39,009 --> 00:30:37,159 can erupt and when they erupt they also 683 00:30:42,340 --> 00:30:39,019 conform mass ejections coronal mass 684 00:30:44,470 --> 00:30:42,350 ejections so these can also active 685 00:30:46,899 --> 00:30:44,480 regions of course tend to be confined to 686 00:30:49,029 --> 00:30:46,909 the lower latitudes of the Sun whereas 687 00:30:52,060 --> 00:30:49,039 promise because can occur anywhere over 688 00:30:57,759 --> 00:30:52,070 the Sun even towards near the poles and 689 00:30:59,590 --> 00:30:57,769 so therefore cmi's can occur anywhere 690 00:31:02,889 --> 00:30:59,600 from the low latitudes to the high 691 00:31:04,690 --> 00:31:02,899 latitudes and near Seoul a minimum it's 692 00:31:07,500 --> 00:31:04,700 more towards the low latitudes so this 693 00:31:09,340 --> 00:31:07,510 can vary over the solar cycle 694 00:31:11,020 --> 00:31:09,350 Craig what did you want to add to that 695 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:11,030 it was that anyone would ask a question 696 00:31:16,140 --> 00:31:12,890 maybe a second question you want to 697 00:31:18,490 --> 00:31:16,150 answer um yeah yeah like they said the 698 00:31:22,270 --> 00:31:18,500 biggest sammy's do come from active 699 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:22,280 regions most often and so so we do care 700 00:31:27,010 --> 00:31:25,130 about when there's an active region when 701 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:27,020 an active region may be emerging and 702 00:31:30,790 --> 00:31:28,970 especially early on when right when they 703 00:31:35,710 --> 00:31:30,800 active region emerges you can often get 704 00:31:37,630 --> 00:31:35,720 a lot of CMI's I'm only partly familiar 705 00:31:40,260 --> 00:31:37,640 with this this new research but it is 706 00:31:43,330 --> 00:31:40,270 pretty exciting to be able to use a 707 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:43,340 helioseismology to look underneath the 708 00:31:47,860 --> 00:31:45,170 Sun and try to predict when an active 709 00:31:51,940 --> 00:31:47,870 region will appear and i think i will 710 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:51,950 add to that I I think this is one of the 711 00:31:56,140 --> 00:31:54,410 reason we actually launched Solar 712 00:31:58,660 --> 00:31:56,150 Dynamics Observatory which is the first 713 00:32:01,780 --> 00:31:58,670 mission of living with a star really to 714 00:32:05,620 --> 00:32:01,790 understand helioseismology in greater 715 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:05,630 detail and penetrate our deeper into the 716 00:32:11,290 --> 00:32:08,450 convection zone where these these 717 00:32:14,350 --> 00:32:11,300 magnetic structures are formed and so 718 00:32:17,830 --> 00:32:14,360 soho MDI has given us the first cut of 719 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:17,840 good statistics and this result is 720 00:32:24,010 --> 00:32:20,450 actually going to be sharpened by using 721 00:32:27,820 --> 00:32:24,020 the Solar Dynamics Observatory so he'll 722 00:32:29,950 --> 00:32:27,830 uhm I instrument so this is pretty 723 00:32:33,670 --> 00:32:29,960 groundbreaking we are delighted to have 724 00:32:38,130 --> 00:32:33,680 this we will have a online press release 725 00:32:41,260 --> 00:32:38,140 on monday stay tuned craig did you 726 00:32:43,740 --> 00:32:41,270 talking okay and David that was a leaker 727 00:32:47,650 --> 00:32:43,750 talking then of course I was Dave and 728 00:32:49,410 --> 00:32:47,660 Alicia Alyssa okay I'm gonna get that 729 00:32:53,410 --> 00:32:49,420 right I'm determining at any rate okay 730 00:32:59,680 --> 00:32:53,420 next up on the call Peter spots from the 731 00:33:01,320 --> 00:32:59,690 Christian Science Monitor Peter oh thank 732 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:01,330 ya thanks for doing this and actually uh 733 00:33:06,430 --> 00:33:03,890 Dave scoop me on me on the question 734 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:06,440 there but i wonder if-if taking both of 735 00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:08,450 these results together if you could just 736 00:33:12,820 --> 00:33:10,850 kind of place this in in a in a kind of 737 00:33:15,220 --> 00:33:12,830 parallel context i mean how does this 738 00:33:17,530 --> 00:33:15,230 how do these developments as 739 00:33:20,620 --> 00:33:17,540 as early as they are but as promising as 740 00:33:22,630 --> 00:33:20,630 they are can you think of a similar time 741 00:33:24,970 --> 00:33:22,640 for example in the history of weather 742 00:33:26,620 --> 00:33:24,980 forecasting where you sort of had the 743 00:33:30,820 --> 00:33:26,630 same sort of potential breakthrough 744 00:33:32,950 --> 00:33:30,830 technologies um coming along just in 745 00:33:37,630 --> 00:33:32,960 trying to draw some kind of parallel for 746 00:33:38,919 --> 00:33:37,640 readers this is Craig DeForest really 747 00:33:42,700 --> 00:33:38,929 you're looking at opposite ends the same 748 00:33:44,830 --> 00:33:42,710 connected system here the Stanford group 749 00:33:46,270 --> 00:33:44,840 is studying the origin of the systems 750 00:33:48,039 --> 00:33:46,280 that give rise to sammys and we're 751 00:33:50,140 --> 00:33:48,049 really studying what happens to see me 752 00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:50,150 after it leaves the Sun and propagates 753 00:33:54,850 --> 00:33:52,250 all the way out to the earth as far as a 754 00:33:57,490 --> 00:33:54,860 parallel with history this really is 755 00:33:59,289 --> 00:33:57,500 like the beginning of space assets for 756 00:34:01,480 --> 00:33:59,299 weather forecasting that for the first 757 00:34:04,419 --> 00:34:01,490 time we're really developing systems 758 00:34:07,450 --> 00:34:04,429 they can get at the root the structure 759 00:34:10,450 --> 00:34:07,460 of what's causing then earth storms and 760 00:34:12,580 --> 00:34:10,460 now space storms around the earth so up 761 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:12,590 until now we've we've relied on point 762 00:34:15,970 --> 00:34:14,810 measurements and models and and really 763 00:34:18,220 --> 00:34:15,980 for the first time we're beginning to 764 00:34:22,690 --> 00:34:18,230 see a complete predictive system 765 00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:22,700 emerging out of the science did you have 766 00:34:40,740 --> 00:34:26,690 a follow up Peter thank you okay next up 767 00:34:49,860 --> 00:34:43,020 going once going twice and Mike are you 768 00:34:51,899 --> 00:34:49,870 with us okay all right let me take a 769 00:34:54,510 --> 00:34:51,909 question from one of the dot-coms and I 770 00:34:56,639 --> 00:34:54,520 believe this is going to be for all four 771 00:34:58,440 --> 00:34:56,649 of you also we just go down the row here 772 00:35:02,580 --> 00:34:58,450 and the question is with the public 773 00:35:07,020 --> 00:35:02,590 fascination of the Sun how can you 774 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:07,030 personally tell the public on how we are 775 00:35:15,210 --> 00:35:09,370 more prepared and what we know about the 776 00:35:18,270 --> 00:35:15,220 Sun from past present and future we can 777 00:35:21,630 --> 00:35:18,280 tell a lot actually as I was indicating 778 00:35:24,450 --> 00:35:21,640 that even five years ago are there where 779 00:35:27,720 --> 00:35:24,460 our stuff we didn't know and five years 780 00:35:30,270 --> 00:35:27,730 later with observations from stereo or 781 00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:30,280 solar dynamics observatory are our whole 782 00:35:37,290 --> 00:35:34,090 view of how the Sun behaves as a 783 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:37,300 magnetic variable star is changing right 784 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:39,970 in front of our eyes so it's it is a 785 00:35:47,010 --> 00:35:43,810 really dynamic time in the history of 786 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:47,020 heliophysics where um you know our 787 00:35:50,850 --> 00:35:49,450 observations are ahead of our 788 00:35:53,550 --> 00:35:50,860 theoretical insights and understanding 789 00:35:56,310 --> 00:35:53,560 but we are seeing these things for the 790 00:35:59,670 --> 00:35:56,320 first time and we are grappling as to 791 00:36:03,300 --> 00:35:59,680 what is going on so I don't know what 792 00:36:06,780 --> 00:36:03,310 more to say but this is a very rich time 793 00:36:12,030 --> 00:36:06,790 for understanding heliophysics and space 794 00:36:14,220 --> 00:36:12,040 weather evolution some views uh well I 795 00:36:16,830 --> 00:36:14,230 have to agree with Lika that we're 796 00:36:19,850 --> 00:36:16,840 making tremendous strides when I first 797 00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:19,860 got interested in this field as a boy 798 00:36:24,390 --> 00:36:22,330 solar physics was was sometimes referred 799 00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:24,400 to as dermatology because we could see 800 00:36:30,030 --> 00:36:27,490 features on the Sun and not the interior 801 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:30,040 yet but we couldn't really understand 802 00:36:35,430 --> 00:36:32,410 them and over the course of just my 803 00:36:37,830 --> 00:36:35,440 lifetime we've seen the data get better 804 00:36:39,450 --> 00:36:37,840 to be where we're measuring the things 805 00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:39,460 we need to be measuring and we've seen 806 00:36:42,690 --> 00:36:41,050 the models and data processing get 807 00:36:46,230 --> 00:36:42,700 better to where we can really encompass 808 00:36:47,610 --> 00:36:46,240 this phenomenally complex system plasma 809 00:36:50,610 --> 00:36:47,620 physics is extraordinary calm 810 00:36:52,590 --> 00:36:50,620 extraordinarily complicated the physics 811 00:36:54,420 --> 00:36:52,600 of solar flares involves differences in 812 00:36:55,890 --> 00:36:54,430 scale between things the size of 813 00:36:59,490 --> 00:36:55,900 Jupiter and things the size of this 814 00:37:02,280 --> 00:36:59,500 television studio and encompassing that 815 00:37:03,599 --> 00:37:02,290 is just very difficult and we've really 816 00:37:05,460 --> 00:37:03,609 seen a tremendous amount of this puzzle 817 00:37:07,589 --> 00:37:05,470 come together for the Sun and by 818 00:37:11,460 --> 00:37:07,599 extension two stars in general just in 819 00:37:14,010 --> 00:37:11,470 the course of a lifetime well I'll see 820 00:37:16,020 --> 00:37:14,020 that basic context I think for me would 821 00:37:18,030 --> 00:37:16,030 be I've started out in this field in 822 00:37:21,299 --> 00:37:18,040 solar physics in the early 70s with a 823 00:37:22,890 --> 00:37:21,309 Skylab program and at that time we made 824 00:37:24,690 --> 00:37:22,900 many new exciting discoveries about 825 00:37:26,730 --> 00:37:24,700 looking at the Sun itself in detail 826 00:37:28,559 --> 00:37:26,740 coronal mass ejections were kind of 827 00:37:32,150 --> 00:37:28,569 discovered only discovered around that 828 00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:32,160 time so that's 40 years ago and and 829 00:37:36,839 --> 00:37:35,290 since then you know we at that time we 830 00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:36,849 we knew nothing about how these things 831 00:37:40,500 --> 00:37:38,650 really connected with the heliosphere 832 00:37:43,890 --> 00:37:40,510 and the earth and so forth we could only 833 00:37:45,809 --> 00:37:43,900 make a crude guesses at this now with 834 00:37:48,630 --> 00:37:45,819 data like you're seeing today we can 835 00:37:50,130 --> 00:37:48,640 actually as they said try and these 836 00:37:52,190 --> 00:37:50,140 things coming out from the Sun tracked 837 00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:52,200 them all the way to the earth and beyond 838 00:37:57,540 --> 00:37:55,690 and and understand much better what 839 00:37:58,980 --> 00:37:57,550 they're coming what's happening with 840 00:38:01,799 --> 00:37:58,990 them and as far as the system's approach 841 00:38:04,500 --> 00:38:01,809 goes so we made huge strides in my 842 00:38:06,870 --> 00:38:04,510 lifetime or my working life time it's 843 00:38:08,819 --> 00:38:06,880 very exciting to see this and of course 844 00:38:10,500 --> 00:38:08,829 now with that we have these future 845 00:38:13,020 --> 00:38:10,510 missions like Solar Probe will actually 846 00:38:15,359 --> 00:38:13,030 go into the atmosphere of the Sun and 847 00:38:17,339 --> 00:38:15,369 that'll be very exciting so it's a very 848 00:38:21,990 --> 00:38:17,349 exciting time to be doing this work 849 00:38:24,030 --> 00:38:22,000 Alyssa yeah and I'd say that the work 850 00:38:26,069 --> 00:38:24,040 that I do I sort of straddles Eve the 851 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:26,079 basic research that NASA does and the 852 00:38:30,569 --> 00:38:28,210 predictions that Noah does by being 853 00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:30,579 based in NOAA and so I sort of I could 854 00:38:34,859 --> 00:38:32,650 see both sides of this and and it's very 855 00:38:36,630 --> 00:38:34,869 exciting so I echo what these guys have 856 00:38:38,220 --> 00:38:36,640 said that this is a great time what 857 00:38:40,829 --> 00:38:38,230 we're getting all these new observations 858 00:38:42,870 --> 00:38:40,839 and in this new understanding of how 859 00:38:45,089 --> 00:38:42,880 these events happen and that that's 860 00:38:47,460 --> 00:38:45,099 feeding into our forecasts and our 861 00:38:49,260 --> 00:38:47,470 ability to predict these in advance and 862 00:38:53,339 --> 00:38:49,270 predict you know how powerful they'll be 863 00:38:55,829 --> 00:38:53,349 and and as we become more reliant on 864 00:38:56,789 --> 00:38:55,839 technology you know our satellites and 865 00:38:58,380 --> 00:38:56,799 everything become more and more 866 00:38:59,910 --> 00:38:58,390 important that makes it more important 867 00:39:02,789 --> 00:38:59,920 to be able to predict when these events 868 00:39:05,549 --> 00:39:02,799 will occur so that's if it's an exciting 869 00:39:08,110 --> 00:39:05,559 time okay we're gonna go back and see if 870 00:39:11,050 --> 00:39:08,120 we can take a second 871 00:39:17,020 --> 00:39:11,060 go with Mike wall and space com Mike are 872 00:39:18,310 --> 00:39:17,030 you with us uh yeah yeah I just had a 873 00:39:21,100 --> 00:39:18,320 phone glitch can you guys hear me this 874 00:39:24,100 --> 00:39:21,110 time read you loud and clear okay great 875 00:39:26,590 --> 00:39:24,110 so yeah so actually stereo launched 876 00:39:28,870 --> 00:39:26,600 about 550 about five years ago I was 877 00:39:31,540 --> 00:39:28,880 just wondering why did it take until now 878 00:39:34,090 --> 00:39:31,550 for you guys to sort of be able to see 879 00:39:36,220 --> 00:39:34,100 this in this new way if you see all this 880 00:39:39,580 --> 00:39:36,230 data in this new way I can address that 881 00:39:41,170 --> 00:39:39,590 as a stranger forest this is an 882 00:39:42,910 --> 00:39:41,180 extraordinarily difficult extraction 883 00:39:45,970 --> 00:39:42,920 problem and we've highlighted the 884 00:39:48,190 --> 00:39:45,980 science that we've been doing more than 885 00:39:52,050 --> 00:39:48,200 that the technique of extracting the 886 00:39:54,310 --> 00:39:52,060 data but this is a very challenging 887 00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:54,320 image separation problem that we're 888 00:39:57,730 --> 00:39:56,570 looking these these brightness clouds 889 00:40:00,130 --> 00:39:57,740 that you're seeing in the movie that's 890 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:00,140 been prepared our fluctuations are less 891 00:40:04,150 --> 00:40:01,490 than a tenth of a percent of the 892 00:40:06,010 --> 00:40:04,160 brightness of a star field image and so 893 00:40:07,810 --> 00:40:06,020 that just a tremendous amount of 894 00:40:10,390 --> 00:40:07,820 extraordinarily careful work was needed 895 00:40:13,450 --> 00:40:10,400 to develop the algorithms and and many 896 00:40:15,850 --> 00:40:13,460 teams have worked on this so as with any 897 00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:15,860 science group we have the final result 898 00:40:19,990 --> 00:40:17,210 but we stand on the shoulders of giants 899 00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:20,000 who prepared the the amazing instruments 900 00:40:24,610 --> 00:40:22,010 that that they can produce the data with 901 00:40:27,010 --> 00:40:24,620 this quality and did the groundwork of 902 00:40:29,410 --> 00:40:27,020 calibrating the instrument so we need to 903 00:40:31,540 --> 00:40:29,420 we need to recognize the folks at NRL 904 00:40:37,030 --> 00:40:31,550 and Rutherford labs for for producing 905 00:40:38,860 --> 00:40:37,040 such a terrific package okay I think 906 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:38,870 that's going to do it for today I want 907 00:40:45,220 --> 00:40:40,210 to thank you all for joining us today 908 00:40:47,710 --> 00:40:45,230 again you could go to ww a safe / stereo 909 00:40:49,890 --> 00:40:47,720 for information on this incredible 910 00:40:55,900 --> 00:40:49,900 mission and all of the heliophysics